Maciej Wapiński - University of Warsaw (SEW)

       Kaliningrad is often described as „an unsinkable Russian aircraft carrier in Europe”. As an exclave, Kaliningrad has a particular position in Russian foreign politics. There is no doubt that “Konigsberg” is and always will be some kind of tool in Kremlin hands. In the near future this region will be more and more “European” in a cultural sense, but at the same time Moscow won’t stop using its most western region in foreign politics.

              Last years’ liberalization of visa regime between Poland and Russia showed the path for next few decades. In 2012 polish consulate issued 140 thousand visas and 13 thousand “small border movement cards”. Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs predicts, that in this year those numbers will be much higher. Kaliningrad region is not different than other regions of Russia, but its geopolitical location is a strong factor. Konigsberg – how Kaliningrad is sometimes called by its inhabitants – fully depends on Moscow. It’s a part of Russian Federation and it won’t change. But we have to take a look at the map – Kaliningrad is 1200 km from Moscow, 340 km from Warsaw and 360 km from Vilnius. Russian enclave is surrounded by EU countries, which strongly influences the people’s mentality. Liberalization of visa regime creates great opportunities for both Poles and Russians to find a new standard of cooperation. Since 2008 University in Olsztyn and Federal Baltic Immanuel Kant University in Kaliningrad cooperate in organization of common seminars and other activities. Without visas this cooperation will be even more productive. And that is the way in which students from northern regions of Poland and Kaliningrad can build strong connections, which will profit in a perspective of few years.

              There are two strategic aspects of Kaliningrad role in Russian foreign politics: military and energy. Last week the Russian minister of defense Sergei Shoigu announced that in the next 2 years Russian aircraft base will be built in Belarus. Kremlin’s military strategy is rather clear – militarization of the western border which means also strengthening of Russian position in Belarus and reviving of “the Union State”. In this scenario “aircraft carrier” is not only a metaphor.

           Construction of Baltic Atomic Power Plant started last year. Why Russians made a decided to start such a big investment? Kaliningrad doesn’t need so much energy. From the beginning Russia wanted to export energy form the power plant to Lithuania, Poland and Germany. This projects faces some political obstacles on Polish and Lithuanian sides, but it seems to be rather perspective scenario. Kaliningrad in a few years will become important regional energy exporter, which can contribute to strengthening its position in Europe.

To conclude: in next few years local cooperation between northern regions of Poland and Kaliningrad will be stronger. On the other hand, Kaliningrad will be dependent of Kremlin decisions, which is fully understandable. Two aspects of Russian foreign politics can strongly influence relations between Kaliningrad and its neighbors – energy and army. Kremlin decisions in those area will determine Kaliningrad’s position in next decades.