Kokis Kira - SPBGU international relations student

There is probably no need to go deep into describing and explaining the unique exclave position of the Kaliningrad region (oblast). Being a federal subject of the Russian Federation it is more than any other part of the country exposed to the European Union, literally sandwiched[1] between Poland and Lithuania. Its geopolitical position would be enough to attract special attention from the federal center, but besides that it is the vulnerable economic situation that also needs to be addressed.

The internal situation of the region is highly dependent not only on the Russian policies, provided for it, but also on the EU’s strategy.  The external policy of the region is, firstly, predetermined by its position, surrounded by EU members, making it natural and inevitable for them to cooperate, and, secondly, indicates the condition of Russia-EU relations, more than that, reflects both sides’ intentions for the possible developments.

In the essay our aim is not to design the ideal Russian strategy towards the region pointing out current defects and saying what it should look like, but rather try to picture the situation in the foreseeable future, bearing in mind those flaws and the complex character of the issue. This variant does not claim to be absolutely objective and comprehensive (inter alia because we are deliberately excluding any NATO related issues), although aims at it.

We will attempt to imagine primarily the internal situation, because the Russian government seems to have realized the significance and urgency of Kaliningrad’s issue, and has recently approved a government program “Socio-economic development of the Kaliningrad region till 2020”. We would not like to estimate its prospects, the main idea we could extract from the document is that Russia is seriously concerned with the issue and is determined to take action. The ultimate goal is to “ensure sustainable socio-economic development”[2] of the oblast by means of improving of the region’s investment attractiveness, promoting of economic growth priorities, and developing of new industrial clusters and tourism.

Thus, there is no reason to be pessimistic about the future domestic situation. The program is going to receive first financing in 2014[3] and is likely to be effectively implemented. The most important results of it are going to be significant improvement of the standard of living and region’s level of economic development, stabilizing the situation and equalizing it with the average Russian level.

Other than the government decree, the domestic situation is going to be affected by 2 more factors. Firstly, Russia, and Kaliningrad in particular, is hosting the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Large-scale arrangements need to need to be made, significantly improving the infrastructure of the region and attracting foreign and domestic investment. Secondly, a new nuclear power plant is due to be put into operation in the second half of 2010s. It will not only uninterruptedly supply industry and population with energy, but allow for export of it, strengthening ties with the neighbors.

On the other hand Kaliningrad’s economy is going to be affected by the loss of the special economic zone status in 2016, when the federal law is due to expire[4], plus by Russia becoming a member of the World Trade Organization in 2012. As a consequence the region will have to attract foreign investment and skilled foreign labor force (in order to make up for the lack of domestic cadres) kind of “on its own”. These are the factors, likely to shape a more distant agenda.

As far as region’s status on the international arena is concerned, we can also see positive signs from the EU, eager to cooperate. The Union emphasized its “particular interest in the Oblast” in its’ Strategy Paper on Russia for the period of 2007-2013[5]. What this “interest” means is the Union’s concerns about the socio-economic and security aspects of the issue.

In 2012 Russia and Poland signed an agreement on local border traffic. According to the document, Polish and Russian citizens may acquire a special permit letting them travel visa-free within the whole Kaliningrad region for Poles and 50 km zone in Poland for Russians.  The applicants are required to have resided in the border region for 3 years[6]. The effect of this new regime will show up primarily on a local scale. “Easier entry requirements may knit the halves of old East Prussia closer together, and also help break down the barriers of mistrust that still dog Polish-Russian economic ties”[7]. Kaliningrad region will start integrating into the European economy, easing its dependency on mainland Russia and equalizing development levels within the Baltic Sea region. Anyway, this step may be regarded as significant not only in bilateral relations between 2 countries, but also as a test for EU-Russia visa-free regime, so much desirable by the latter.

From the Russian side positioning of the Kaliningrad oblast within the framework of the foreign policy seems to be stable and not changing for a long time. The Center is not willing to grant any special rights to the region, despite its unique geopolitical position. That is why the scenario for the future may include adhering to centralized policy-making at the same time engaging neighbor countries in improving the situation by opening the region to more cooperation. Despite the willingness to integrate it into the EU space and increase mobility, the Union will stay concerned with the high level of centralization, bureaucratization. Some other obstacles to integration are the scale of corruption and organized crime, as well as poor environmental record of the region, particularly in terms of water pollution[8].

All in all, the Kaliningrad issue represents a huge challenge, but also an opportunity for integration. In general, the region is highly dependent on the federal center both politically and economically, and this condition is improbable to change. That is why the future scenario may look like gradually stabilizing and developing economy with our government paying special attention to it. However it is not going to blossom, because only federal efforts, in other words directives and money, will not be enough as long as the region is not fully integrated in the EU space. The Union is making friendly steps towards Kaliningrad, but its main goal is to just eliminate the economically-lagging-behind (actually ghetto) region within its territory. The region will seek to attract foreign investment in order to survive. The central government will not unleash it and grant a privileged status, because this would create discontent within the Federation. The full integration of the region with the European Union will keep up with the speed of EU-Russia-as-a-whole integration.

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[1] Sergunin A. Kaliningrad: Changing Perceptions.// Regions in Central and Eastern Europe: Past and present. 2007. №15. – C. 85.

[2] Государственная программа Российской Федерации «Социально-экономическое развитие калининградской области до 2020 года». Утверждена распоряжением Правительства Российской Федерации от 27 марта 2013 г., № 461-р.

[3] Калининградскую программу развития начнут финансировать с 2014 г.// ФГУП РАМИ «РИА Новости». 02.04.2013. URL: http://ria.ru/society/20130402/930647879.html [12.04.2013].

[4] Федеральный закон от 10 января 2006 г. N 16-ФЗ "Об Особой экономической зоне в Калининградской области и о внесении изменений в некоторые законодательные акты Российской Федерации". Принят Государственной Думой 23 декабря 2005 года. Одобрен Советом Федерации 27 декабря 2005 года.

[5] Country Strategy Paper 2007-2013. Russian Federation.// European External Action Service.

[6] О подписании Соглашения между Правительством Российской Федерации и Правительством Республики Польша о порядке местного приграничного передвижения. Одобрено распоряжением Правительства Российской Федерации от 5 декабря 2011 г., N 2182-р.

[7] Cienski J. Poland: easing trade with Kaliningrad.// Financial Times. 24.08.2012. URL: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/08/24/poland-easing-trade-with-kaliningrad/#axzz2QEt10bOQ [12.04.2013].

[8] Country Strategy Paper 2007-2013. Russian Federation.// European External Action Service.